Description

This analysis provides a forecast of TRB prices using a Seasonal ARIMA model with Box-Cox transformation. The forecast includes different scenarios:

The confidence levels used are 68%, 95%, and 99.7%, which means there is a corresponding probability that the actual price will fall within the Bear and Bull case range for each confidence level.

The purpose of this model is to help investors understand potential future price movements and make informed decisions based on different market scenarios.

Bear_0.997 Bear_0.95 Bear_0.68 Base Bull_0.68 Bull_0.95 Bull_0.997
2025-06-15 29.120034 34.617712 40.629972 47.662459 55.630758 64.347191 74.570079
2025-06-22 20.265180 27.339336 35.836247 46.659981 59.937293 75.545813 95.123055
2025-06-29 16.173452 24.062361 34.233367 48.017642 65.893224 87.958300 116.883815
2025-07-06 12.043018 19.709296 30.284135 45.459651 66.146000 92.794411 129.074696
2025-07-13 10.239979 18.134860 29.639360 46.912195 71.380299 103.932638 149.511154
2025-07-20 8.768495 16.734898 28.952468 48.065582 76.084278 114.427724 169.431187
2025-07-27 7.685120 15.725084 28.646626 49.619704 81.306356 125.744142 190.826625
2025-08-03 6.718390 14.719953 28.175335 50.790712 85.932451 136.337702 211.566707
2025-08-10 5.591546 13.209593 26.664195 50.132175 87.685075 142.813371 226.691243
2025-08-17 4.845569 12.265292 25.961941 50.647289 91.169414 151.854068 245.710524
2025-08-24 4.113640 11.199268 24.893394 50.411160 93.386585 159.030419 262.204929
2025-08-31 3.338742 9.871263 23.157571 48.832093 93.276952 162.604306 273.428358
2025-09-07 2.963804 9.412258 23.110017 50.395485 98.709839 175.370356 299.601974
2025-09-14 2.383161 8.322988 21.675512 49.324943 99.697589 181.339570 315.891910
2025-09-21 2.104275 7.923321 21.591811 50.742509 104.995199 194.320806 343.371125
2025-09-28 1.583134 6.692500 19.513416 48.068977 102.882074 195.188434 351.946467
2025-10-05 1.410127 6.426443 19.552629 49.587250 108.340876 208.644067 380.793587
2025-10-12 1.241938 6.121898 19.451569 50.792529 113.269296 221.379257 408.866635
2025-10-19 1.114845 5.914335 19.552012 52.416168 119.045576 235.733837 439.965948
2025-10-26 0.985262 5.652769 19.474764 53.639256 124.109645 249.035104 469.718738
2025-11-02 0.802043 5.109381 18.572217 52.951462 125.433731 255.908408 489.081642
2025-11-09 0.687928 4.796450 18.234871 53.489468 129.158325 267.069932 515.845669
2025-11-16 0.568448 4.399422 17.589389 53.242851 131.283735 275.452677 538.157443